EU Trade Topic Structural Pressure Expected to Weigh on Rates in Q3 2026

Roger Chan

Managing Director

+852 2201 1441

May 22, 2026

The Asia–Europe container market is expected to face increasing pressure in the third quarter of 2026 as expanding vessel supply meets subdued demand. Although the traditional peak season may provide temporary support, rates are likely to trend lower than in the first half of the year.
 
We expect the average SCFI Europe rate in Q3 to range between USD 1,200 and 1,800 per TEU, broadly in line with the same period last year, with the potential for further upside if peak season demand strengthens or additional supply disruptions emerge. While ongoing Red Sea diversions continue to support costs and absorb capacity, the broader market is increasingly shaped by structural oversupply and weak European import demand.
 

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